With the Nov. 5 United States presidential election predicted to be a tight race, the mobilization of American voters living abroad is more significant than ever. Despite being dispersed across the globe, US expatriates hold substantial electoral power, and their votes could potentially sway the outcome in key battleground states.
The US maintains a complicated relationship with its citizens abroad, marked by notable barriers to accessing essential government services, a burdensome taxation and financial reporting system, and a hefty $2,350 fee for those seeking to renounce their citizenship. One overseas arena receiving increased attention, however, is absentee voting, as both Republican and Democratic parties recognize the strategic importance of engaging American voters living abroad.
Twenty-two states, including Massachusetts, New Mexico, and New York, have embraced digital solutions, allowing for email requests of absentee ballots, while others rely on paper forms mailed in. According to federal guidelines, American citizens living abroad can based on their last state of residence to receive absentee ballots for national, state, and local elections. This opportunity extends to military families, students, and workers stationed overseas, all of whom have a stake in the outcomes that ripple back to the US.
Estimates from the American government indicate there are nearly three million eligible voters residing outside the country, predominantly in Canada, the United Kingdom, , Israel, and Australia. Yet, few take advantage of the opportunity. In 2020, roughly 911,614 ballots were returned from abroad, and in the 2022 midterm elections, turnout among American citizens abroad was just 3.4 per cent.
This year’s focus on getting out the vote among expatriates has been particularly pronounced, as the realization of the significant impact of these votes seems to have finally dawned on political parties, candidates, and advocacy groups.
As the election looms, American expats in Canada, like their peers around the world, are casting their ballots. Their votes carry not only their individual voices but their concern for the future of their friends, families, and the relationships that connect both countries.
Canada’s home to the largest population of American expatriates, a phenomenon deeply rooted in the extensive cultural and economic connections that exist between the two nations. This proximity not only fosters a shared sense of identity, but also means that Canadian residents are often directly impacted by US policies and decisions. As a result, the engagement of these expatriates in the electoral process becomes even more crucial, as their votes reflect not only their personal interests but also the concerns of the communities and families they have south of the border.
Israel has the fourth-largest American expatriate population, with roughly 200,000 eligible voters, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program and iVote Israel. Generally, Israel tends to be Trump-friendly territory, demonstrated by the dedication of a town square in his honour in Petah Tikva, a large middle-class city west of Tel Aviv.
Groups like iVote Israel and Republicans Overseas in Israel are working resolutely to mobilize voters, focusing primarily on battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. While the pool of voters in places like Israel isn’t massive, it could be large enough to sway the results in a close race.
This untapped pool of potential voters has captured the attention of strategists. Sharon Manitta, global press secretary for Democrats Abroad, noted votes from abroad played a key role in flipping states like Georgia and Arizona in 2020, citing figures like the 18,475 ballots cast from overseas in Georgia, which was won by Biden by only 11,779 votes. Given these razor-thin margins, it’s clear overseas votes can be decisive, especially ballots in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Efforts to engage voters abroad have been ramping up on both sides. The Democratic National Committee recently allocated $300,000 for Democrats Abroad to boost overseas voter turnout, a first in any presidential election cycle. Meanwhile, Donald Trump announced plans to eliminate US income taxes for Americans living abroad, marking the latest addition to his series of tax proposals as the 2024 campaign approaches its final stages.
Republicans and Democrats alike are urging American expats to vote in states where their influence could tip the balance. The stakes are high, and the narrow margins in key battleground states highlight the critical importance of every vote cast from overseas.
It’s vital Americans abroad are heard. Despite the significant influence of US elections on global affairs—particularly in Europe, where Donald Trump’s iration for Vladimir Putin, threats to withdraw from NATO, and intentions to instigate a trade war with the EU left a lasting mark—the international perspective of overseas voters allows this demographic to appreciate the profound interconnectedness of the world beyond the US.
Voting isn’t only a right but a responsibility, and with the stakes as high as they are, every vote cast from abroad could make a crucial difference, regardless of the state or country it’s cast from.
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